Frosinone Calcio vs Lecce: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Frosinone Calciovs
LecceThe model puts Frosinone Calcio at 51%. The model leans toward Frosinone Calcio. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Frosinone Calcio.
- −The head-to-head record favours Lecce (3-4-7).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Frosinone Calcio have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lecce have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Frosinone Calcio have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Frosinone Calcio is priced at 1.9.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Frosinone Calcio at 51%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Lecce at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Frosinone Calcio. Frosinone Calcio is priced at 1.9. The draw is priced at 3.74. Lecce is priced at 3.84.
Frosinone Calcio have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Lecce have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Frosinone Calcio have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Lecce have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Frosinone Calcio average 2 goals per game this season. Frosinone Calcio average 38% possession. Lecce average 1 goals per game this season. Lecce average 43% possession.
The model gives 55% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Frosinone Calcio or Lecce?
Our model rates Frosinone Calcio as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Frosinone Calcio vs Lecce?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 14 meetings: 3 Frosinone Calcio wins, 4 draws, 7 Lecce wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Internazionale Milano | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21:9 | 19 |
| 2 |  Lazio | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14:4 | 19 |
| 3 |  Roma | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16:3 | 17 |
| 4 |  Milan | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14:7 | 15 |
| 5 |  Como | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12:7 | 14 |
| 6 | Frosinone Calcio | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:9 | 13 |
| 7 |  Cagliari Calcio | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6:7 | 13 |
| 8 |  Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 9 |  Napoli | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:7 | 10 |
| 10 |  Torino | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10:9 | 10 |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10:11 | 9 |
| 12 | Lecce | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 13 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12:14 | 8 |
| 14 |  Monza 1912 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13:15 | 7 |
| 15 |  Bologna 1909 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6:10 | 5 |
| 16 |  Udinese Calcio | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9:16 | 4 |
| 17 |  Genoa | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:13 | 4 |
| 18 |  Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8:17 | 4 |
| 19 |  Parma | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4:13 | 4 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6:16 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.