Toulouse vs Troyes AC: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Toulousevs
Troyes ACThe model puts Toulouse at 62%. The model leans toward Toulouse. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Toulouse.
- +The head-to-head record favours Toulouse (9-5-1).
- −Toulouse are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Troyes AC are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Toulouse have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Troyes AC have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Toulouse have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Toulouse will be without Niflore, Oppong, Nicolaisen R..
- Troyes AC will be without Ouzenadji, Titi, Ismael B., Gozzi Iweru, Yacouba Kone.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 25 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 5 | ||||
| 3 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Toulouse at 62%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Troyes AC at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Toulouse. Toulouse is priced at 1.595. The draw is priced at 4.2. Troyes AC is priced at 5.25.
Toulouse have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Troyes AC have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Toulouse have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Troyes AC have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Toulouse average 0 goals per game this season. Toulouse average 51% possession. Troyes AC average 1 goals per game this season. Troyes AC average 35% possession.
The model gives 20% for both teams to score. The model gives 17% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Toulouse or Troyes AC?
Our model rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Troyes AC?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Toulouse wins, 5 draws, 1 Troyes AC wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lyon | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 3 |  Paris | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12:7 | 14 |
| 4 |  Lille OSC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 5 |  AS Monaco | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:6 | 14 |
| 6 |  Stade Rennais | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15:14 | 13 |
| 7 |  Lorient | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 11 |
| 8 |  RC Lens | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 9 |  Olympique de Marseille | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14:10 | 9 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | 9 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12:11 | 9 |
| 12 |  Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 11:17 | 9 |
| 13 |  Nice | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6:9 | 8 |
| 14 |  Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 12:15 | 7 |
| 15 |  Angers SCO | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:15 | 7 |
| 16 |  Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10:15 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes AC | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:16 | 4 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 5:11 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.