RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Manchester City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
RasenBallsport Leipzigvs
Manchester CityThe model puts Manchester City at 57%. The model leans toward Manchester City. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours RasenBallsport Leipzig.
- −The head-to-head record favours RasenBallsport Leipzig (4-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- RasenBallsport Leipzig have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Manchester City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- RasenBallsport Leipzig have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Manchester City is priced at 1.544.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts RasenBallsport Leipzig at 24%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Manchester City at 57%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Manchester City. RasenBallsport Leipzig is priced at 5.2. The draw is priced at 4.64. Manchester City is priced at 1.544.
RasenBallsport Leipzig have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Manchester City have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
RasenBallsport Leipzig have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Manchester City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
RasenBallsport Leipzig average 1 goals per game this season. RasenBallsport Leipzig average 50% possession. Manchester City average 2 goals per game this season. Manchester City average 64% possession.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 54% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, RasenBallsport Leipzig or Manchester City?
Our model rates Manchester City as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Manchester City?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 RasenBallsport Leipzig wins, 1 draws, 1 Manchester City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
UEFA Champions League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11:6 | 6 |
| 9 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10:5 | 6 |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 11 |  Club Brugge | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 |  Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 14 |  Bayern Munich | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 |  Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 |  Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 |  Internazionale Milano | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 |  LASK Linz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 |  Sabah Baku | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 27 |  RC Lens | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 28 |  Bodo-Glimt | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:9 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 30 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 31 |  Fenerbahce | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 32 |  Slavia Prague | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 34 |  Porto | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Lille OSC | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:13 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.