UEFA Conference League

AGF Aarhus vs Braga: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

AGF Aarhusvs

Braga

Our predictionBraga to win

Model score: Low · 6/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Braga at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours AGF Aarhus.

Win probabilities

1 · AGF Aarhus35%

Draw26%

2 · Braga39%

1 · AGF AarhusDraw2 · Braga

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2AGF Aarhus3.02+3.3%

1X2Draw3.48-1.3%

1X2Braga2.30-2.0%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Most likely scorelines

1-112.5%

1-09.6%

0-19.6%

2-18.2%

1-28.1%

0-07.4%

Team strength rating

AGF Aarhus

Braga

Recent form

AGF AarhusWDDLW

BragaLWLLL

Expected goals

1.31AGF Aarhus

1.30Braga

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

AGF Aarhus Braga

Key points

AGF Aarhus have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Braga have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Braga is priced at 2.3.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Braga win2.30Fair (-2.0%)

Double chanceBraga or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	10	6	3
1	10	13	8	4	1
2	6	8	5	2
3	3	4	2	1
4		1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts AGF Aarhus at 35%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Braga at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market frames this as a close contest. AGF Aarhus is priced at 3.025. The draw is priced at 3.48. Braga is priced at 2.3.

AGF Aarhus have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Braga have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, AGF Aarhus or Braga?

Our model rates Braga as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for AGF Aarhus vs Braga?

A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward a balanced game.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

UEFA Conference League - League stage

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	7:2	6
2	Lugano	2	2	0	0	8:4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	6:2	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	6:2	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	5:1	6
6	AS Monaco	2	2	0	0	5:1	6
7	Sint-Truidense	2	2	0	0	3:0	6
8	Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	3:1	6
9	Brighton & Hove Albion	2	1	0	1	4:0	4
10	Copenhagen	2	1	0	1	5:2	4
11	CS Universitatea Craiova	2	1	0	1	4:2	4
12	Mjallby	2	1	0	1	3:1	4
13	Ajax	2	1	1	0	3:2	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	1	0	3:2	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	1	0	3:3	3
16	Braga	2	1	1	0	2:3	3
17	Gent	2	1	1	0	1:2	3
18	Freiburg	2	1	1	0	3:5	3
19	Nordsjaelland	2	0	0	2	3:3	2
20	Egnatia	2	0	0	2	2:2	2
21	Riga FC	2	0	0	2	2:2	2
22	Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	4:5	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	3:4	1
24	Jablonec	2	0	1	1	2:3	1
25	Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	1:2	1
26	AGF Aarhus	2	0	1	1	1:2	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	2:4	1
28	Heart of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	1:3	1
29	Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	1:3	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	3:6	1
31	Kairat	2	0	1	1	2:6	1
32	Thun	2	0	2	0	0:2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps	2	0	2	0	2:6	0
34	Vaasan Palloseura	2	0	2	0	2:6	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	2	0	1:5	0
36	Zalgiris Kaunas	2	0	2	0	1:8	0