Udinese Calcio vs Roma: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Udinese Calciovs
RomaThe model puts Roma at 64%. The model leans toward Roma. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Roma.
- +The head-to-head record favours Roma (3-1-11).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Udinese Calcio have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Roma have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Udinese Calcio have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Roma is priced at 1.53.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Udinese Calcio at 15%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Roma at 64%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Roma. Udinese Calcio is priced at 6.05. The draw is priced at 4.26. Roma is priced at 1.53.
Udinese Calcio have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Roma have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Udinese Calcio have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Roma have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Udinese Calcio average 1 goals per game this season. Udinese Calcio average 41% possession. Roma average 3 goals per game this season. Roma average 56% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 69% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Udinese Calcio or Roma?
Our model rates Roma as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Udinese Calcio vs Roma?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Udinese Calcio wins, 1 draws, 11 Roma wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Internazionale Milano | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 23:10 | 22 |
| 2 |  Lazio | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16:5 | 22 |
| 3 | Roma | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 19:6 | 18 |
| 4 |  Como | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14:7 | 17 |
| 5 |  Milan | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14:7 | 15 |
| 6 |  Frosinone Calcio | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 7 |  Torino | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 8 |  Cagliari Calcio | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6:9 | 13 |
| 9 |  Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:10 | 11 |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14:15 | 10 |
| 12 |  Lecce | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bologna 1909 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:16 | 8 |
| 15 |  Monza 1912 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 15:18 | 7 |
| 16 |  Genoa | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6:13 | 7 |
| 17 | Udinese Calcio | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9:16 | 4 |
| 18 |  Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 9:19 | 4 |
| 19 |  Parma | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 6:17 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.