France. Ligue 1

Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Paris Saint-Germainvs

Lyon

Our predictionParis Saint-Germain to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Paris Saint-Germain at 69%. The model leans toward Paris Saint-Germain. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Paris Saint-Germain.
+The head-to-head record favours Paris Saint-Germain (11-1-3).
−Paris Saint-Germain are dealing with notable absentees.
+Lyon are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Paris Saint-Germain69%

Draw17%

2 · Lyon14%

1 · Paris Saint-GermainDraw2 · Lyon

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.37+30.4%

1X2Paris Saint-Germain1.42+2.2%

1X2Lyon6.60-0.2%

1X2Draw5.10-2.0%

BTTSYes1.53-30.4%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Paris Saint-GermainWWWWW

LyonLWWLW

Team strength rating

Paris Saint-Germain

Lyon

Expected goals

1.75Paris Saint-Germain

0.46Lyon

Over 2.5 goals38%

Both teams to score30%

Most likely scorelines

1-019.2%

2-016.8%

0-011.0%

3-09.8%

1-18.8%

2-17.7%

Match DNA

Paris Saint-Germain Lyon

Key points

Paris Saint-Germain have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
Lyon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Paris Saint-Germain have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings.
Paris Saint-Germain will be without Longoni, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia K., Aoas Correa, Mendes.
Lyon will be without Hamdani, Kango, Ouedraogo, Nakamura Kei., Openda, Tagliafico, Sulc P..

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Paris Saint-Germain win1.42Fair (+2.2%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	11	5	1
1	19	9	2
2	17	8	2
3	10	5	1
4	4	2
5	2

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Paris Saint-Germain at 69%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Lyon at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Paris Saint-Germain. Paris Saint-Germain is priced at 1.416. The draw is priced at 5.1. Lyon is priced at 6.6.

Paris Saint-Germain have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. Lyon have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

Paris Saint-Germain have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Paris Saint-Germain are on 5 wins in a row. Lyon have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.

Paris Saint-Germain average 1 goals per game this season. Paris Saint-Germain average 68% possession. Lyon average 1 goals per game this season. Lyon average 48% possession.

The model gives 30% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Paris Saint-Germain or Lyon?

Our model rates Paris Saint-Germain as the most likely outcome at 69% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Paris Saint-Germain vs Lyon?

A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 11 Paris Saint-Germain wins, 1 draws, 3 Lyon wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchDoue D.Paris Saint-Germain8.7