UEFA Conference League

Lugano vs Zalgiris Kaunas: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Luganovs

Zalgiris Kaunas

Our predictionLugano to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 3-0

The model puts Lugano at 79%. The model leans toward Lugano. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Lugano.

Win probabilities

1 · Lugano79%

Draw14%

2 · Zalgiris Kaunas7%

1 · LuganoDraw2 · Zalgiris Kaunas

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

O/U 2.5Over 2.51.58+10.7%

BTTSNo1.67+6.3%

1X2Lugano1.23+1.1%

1X2Zalgiris Kaunas12.50-0.4%

1X2Draw6.35-0.7%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Lugano

Zalgiris Kaunas

Expected goals

3.34Lugano

0.50Zalgiris Kaunas

Over 2.5 goals74%

Both teams to score38%

Recent form

LuganoWWWWW

Zalgiris KaunasDLWLW

Most likely scorelines

3-013.3%

2-011.9%

4-011.1%

5-07.4%

1-07.2%

3-16.7%

Match DNA

Lugano Zalgiris Kaunas

Key points

Lugano have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
Zalgiris Kaunas have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Lugano is priced at 1.225.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Lugano win1.23Fair (+1.1%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	2	1
1	7	4
2	12	6	2
3	13	7	2
4	11	6	1
5	7	4

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Lugano at 79%. The model puts the draw at 14%. The model puts Zalgiris Kaunas at 7%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-0.

The market leans toward Lugano. Lugano is priced at 1.225. The draw is priced at 6.35. Zalgiris Kaunas is priced at 12.5.

Lugano have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Lugano are on 5 wins in a row. Zalgiris Kaunas have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 74% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Lugano or Zalgiris Kaunas?

Our model rates Lugano as the most likely outcome at 79% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Lugano vs Zalgiris Kaunas?

A scoreline around 3-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

UEFA Conference League - League stage

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	7:2	6
2	Lugano	2	2	0	0	8:4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	6:2	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	6:2	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	5:1	6
6	AS Monaco	2	2	0	0	5:1	6
7	Sint-Truidense	2	2	0	0	3:0	6
8	Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	3:1	6
9	Brighton & Hove Albion	2	1	0	1	4:0	4
10	Copenhagen	2	1	0	1	5:2	4
11	CS Universitatea Craiova	2	1	0	1	4:2	4
12	Mjallby	2	1	0	1	3:1	4
13	Ajax	2	1	1	0	3:2	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	1	0	3:2	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	1	0	3:3	3
16	Braga	2	1	1	0	2:3	3
17	Gent	2	1	1	0	1:2	3
18	Freiburg	2	1	1	0	3:5	3
19	Nordsjaelland	2	0	0	2	3:3	2
20	Egnatia	2	0	0	2	2:2	2
21	Riga FC	2	0	0	2	2:2	2
22	Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	4:5	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	3:4	1
24	Jablonec	2	0	1	1	2:3	1
25	Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	1:2	1
26	AGF Aarhus	2	0	1	1	1:2	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	2:4	1
28	Heart of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	1:3	1
29	Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	1:3	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	3:6	1
31	Kairat	2	0	1	1	2:6	1
32	Thun	2	0	2	0	0:2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps	2	0	2	0	2:6	0
34	Vaasan Palloseura	2	0	2	0	2:6	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	2	0	1:5	0
36	Zalgiris Kaunas	2	0	2	0	1:8	0