Ipswich Town vs Bournemouth: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ipswich Townvs
BournemouthThe model puts Bournemouth at 48%. The model leans toward Bournemouth. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Bournemouth score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- −Recent form favours Ipswich Town.
- −Bournemouth are dealing with notable absentees.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ipswich Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bournemouth have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ipswich Town have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ipswich Town will be without Lukic.
- Bournemouth will be without Toth, Araujo Jo., Scott.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Ipswich Town at 28%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Bournemouth at 48%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Bournemouth. Ipswich Town is priced at 3.76. The draw is priced at 3.8. Bournemouth is priced at 1.904.
Ipswich Town have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Bournemouth have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Ipswich Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Bournemouth have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Ipswich Town average 1 goals per game this season. Ipswich Town average 45% possession. Bournemouth average 2 goals per game this season. Bournemouth average 41% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ipswich Town or Bournemouth?
Our model rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ipswich Town vs Bournemouth?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Ipswich Town wins, 4 draws, 1 Bournemouth wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Ipswich Town
- 3Davis Le.
- 6Diop I.
- 7Fatawu
- 10Cesar Enciso
- 11Philogene-Bidace
- 12Florentino
- 19Da Silva
- 25Palacios Ex.
- 26O'Shea
- 28Walton Chr.
- 42Ouatarra
- Lukic (3)
Bournemouth
- 1Petrovic
- 3Truffert
- 5Hill Ja.
- 9de Lima Barbosa
- 10Christie
- 12Adams T.
- 14Silva
- 15Smith A
- 16Tavernier M.
- 19Kluivert
- 37Vitor
- Toth (2)
- Araujo Jo. (2)
- Scott (3)
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Leeds United | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 9 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 10 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 12 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 | Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry City | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 19 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 7:17 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.