Brighton & Hove Albion vs Brentford: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Brighton & Hove Albionvs
BrentfordThe model puts Brighton & Hove Albion at 51%. The model leans toward Brighton & Hove Albion. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Brentford.
- +Brighton & Hove Albion score more per game (3.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +Brighton & Hove Albion creates more chances (19 vs 15 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head record favours Brentford (4-4-7).
- −Brighton & Hove Albion are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Brentford are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Brighton & Hove Albion have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Brentford have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Brighton & Hove Albion have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Brighton & Hove Albion will be without Tzimas, Ferguson, Mitoma, Zadok Yohanna, Struijk, Kadioglu, Azeez.
- Brentford will be without Henry Ric., Dasilva P., Kaye Furo, Milambo.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Brighton & Hove Albion at 51%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Brentford at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Brighton & Hove Albion. Brighton & Hove Albion is priced at 1.912. The draw is priced at 3.9. Brentford is priced at 3.64.
Brighton & Hove Albion have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Brentford have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Brighton & Hove Albion have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Brentford have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Brentford are on 2 wins in a row.
Brighton & Hove Albion average 3 goals per game this season. Brighton & Hove Albion average 59% possession. Brentford average 2 goals per game this season. Brentford average 50% possession.
The model gives 76% for both teams to score. The model gives 82% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Brighton & Hove Albion or Brentford?
Our model rates Brighton & Hove Albion as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Brentford?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Brighton & Hove Albion wins, 4 draws, 7 Brentford wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Brighton & Hove Albion
- 1Verbruggen
- 5Dunk
- 13Groß P.
- 19Kostoulas
- 20Costinha J.
- 21Boscagli
- 25Gomez Amarilla
- 26Ayari Y.
- 29de Cuyper M.
- 35Yalcouye
- 44Vuskovic L.
- Tzimas (2)
- Ferguson (2)
- Mitoma (2)
- Zadok Yohanna (2)
- Struijk (3)
- Kadioglu (3)
- Azeez (3)
Brentford
- 1Kelleher C.
- 4Van den Berg S.
- 6Yarmoliuk
- 7Schade K.
- 8Jensen M.
- 9Nascimento
- 11Ouatarra
- 20Ajer K.
- 23Lewis-Potter
- 27Janelt
- 33Kayode M.
- Henry Ric. (2)
- Dasilva P. (2)
- Kaye Furo (2)
- Milambo (3)
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 | Brentford | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Leeds United | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 10 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 12 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry City | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 19 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 7:17 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.