Crystal Palace vs Liverpool: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Crystal Palacevs
LiverpoolThe model puts Liverpool at 61%. The model leans toward Liverpool. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Liverpool.
- −The head-to-head record favours Crystal Palace (8-3-4).
- +Liverpool creates more chances (13 vs 18 shots per game).
- +Liverpool controls more of the ball (41% vs 57%).
- +Crystal Palace are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Liverpool are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Crystal Palace have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liverpool have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Crystal Palace have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Crystal Palace will be without Tomiyasu, Sarr, Riad Ch., Mateta.
- Liverpool will be without Ekitike, Leoni, Frimpong J., Bradley.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Crystal Palace at 20%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Liverpool at 61%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Liverpool. Crystal Palace is priced at 5.25. The draw is priced at 4.46. Liverpool is priced at 1.568.
Crystal Palace have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Liverpool have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Crystal Palace have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Liverpool have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Crystal Palace average 2 goals per game this season. Crystal Palace average 41% possession. Liverpool average 2 goals per game this season. Liverpool average 57% possession.
The model gives 62% for both teams to score. The model gives 69% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Crystal Palace or Liverpool?
Our model rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 61% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Crystal Palace wins, 3 draws, 4 Liverpool wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Crystal Palace
- 1Henderson D.
- 3Mitchell
- 6Canvot
- 8Lerma J.
- 10Jesus Pino Santos Ye.
- 18Kamada
- 20Wharton
- 22Larsen J. S.
- 23Timber
- 26Richards Chr.
- 30Mingueza
- Tomiyasu (2)
- Sarr (2)
- Riad Ch. (2)
- Mateta (2)
Liverpool
- 1Becker A.
- 4van Dijk
- 5Jacquet
- 6Kerkez
- 7Wirtz
- 9Isak Al.
- 10Mac Allister
- 18Gakpo
- 29Barcola B.
- 33Araujo R.
- 42Nyoni
- Ekitike (2)
- Leoni (2)
- Frimpong J. (2)
- Bradley (2)
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 15:5 | 27 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21:13 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Everton | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12:10 | 16 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 8 |  Leeds United | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 10 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:16 | 12 |
| 12 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 13 |  Hull City | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11:11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:12 | 10 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:13 | 9 |
| 17 |  Coventry City | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10:19 | 9 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 19 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 7:17 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.