Newcastle United U21 vs Sunderland U21: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
The model puts Sunderland U21 at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sunderland U21.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Newcastle United U21 have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sunderland U21 have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Newcastle United U21 have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sunderland U21 is priced at 2.02.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Newcastle United U21 at 31%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Sunderland U21 at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Sunderland U21. Newcastle United U21 is priced at 2.815. The draw is priced at 3.86. Sunderland U21 is priced at 2.02.
Newcastle United U21 have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Sunderland U21 have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Newcastle United U21 have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Sunderland U21 have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Newcastle United U21 or Sunderland U21?
Our model rates Sunderland U21 as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Newcastle United U21 vs Sunderland U21?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 2 Newcastle United U21 wins, 5 draws, 1 Sunderland U21 wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.