Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddahvs
Al-GharafaThe model puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 84%. The model leans toward Al-Ahli Jeddah. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Al-Ahli Jeddah.
- +The head-to-head record favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (4-3-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Al-Ahli Jeddah have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al-Gharafa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah is priced at 1.07.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 10 | 3 | ||||
| 2 | 16 | 5 | ||||
| 3 | 16 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 12 | 4 | ||||
| 5 | 8 | 3 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 84%. The model puts the draw at 10%. The model puts Al-Gharafa at 5%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-0.
The market leans toward Al-Ahli Jeddah. Al-Ahli Jeddah is priced at 1.07. The draw is priced at 7.95. Al-Gharafa is priced at 15.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Al-Gharafa have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 4 wins in a row. Al-Gharafa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 27% for both teams to score. The model gives 67% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Gharafa?
Our model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 84% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Gharafa?
A scoreline around 3-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 9 meetings: 4 Al-Ahli Jeddah wins, 3 draws, 2 Al-Gharafa wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
AFC Champions League Elite - League stage| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima Antlers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Gamba Osaka | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 3 |  Beijing Guoan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Vissel Kobe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 5 |  Shanghai Port | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7:5 | 4 |
| 6 |  Darul Takzim | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:1 | 4 |
| 7 |  Daejeon Hana Citizen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 8 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 |
| 9 |  Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 10 |  Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Buriram United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 12 |  Ratchaburi | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4:7 | 0 |
| 13 |  Pohang Steelers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 14 |  Hanoi Police | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 15 |  Port | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 16 |  Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:10 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.