Elche vs Real Betis: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Elchevs
Real BetisThe model puts Real Betis at 49%. The model leans toward Real Betis. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Real Betis.
- +Real Betis creates more chances (13 vs 17 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Elche are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Real Betis are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Elche have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Betis have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Elche have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Elche will be without Aguado, Lemar.
- Real Betis will be without Hernandez J.K., Bernal.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Elche at 27%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Real Betis at 49%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Real Betis. Elche is priced at 3.42. The draw is priced at 3.68. Real Betis is priced at 2.04.
Elche have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Real Betis have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Elche have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Real Betis have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Real Betis are on 3 wins in a row.
Elche average 1 goals per game this season. Elche average 59% possession. Real Betis average 1 goals per game this season. Real Betis average 54% possession.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Elche or Real Betis?
Our model rates Real Betis as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Elche vs Real Betis?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Elche wins, 3 draws, 5 Real Betis wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Elche
- 1Dituro
- 2Sangare
- 3Revivo
- 5Redondo
- 10Buonanotte
- 11Valera G.
- 12Villar
- 14Nino
- 21Cepeda
- 23Chust Vic.
- 47Jon Morcillo
- Aguado (2)
- Lemar (2)
Real Betis
- 1Valles A.
- 2Bellerin
- 4de Souza N.
- 5Bartra
- 7dos Santos
- 8Fornals
- 10Ezzalzouli
- 11Garcia F.J.
- 19Parrott
- 21Roca M.
- 22Isco A.
- Hernandez J.K. (2)
- Bernal (2)
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 31:10 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Bilbao | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15:11 | 16 |
| 8 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15:14 | 15 |
| 9 |  Racing de Santander | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 17:30 | 14 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Alaves | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 12 |  Celta | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12:23 | 12 |
| 17 | Elche | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante UD | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 8:20 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 9:23 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.