Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Real Sociedadvs
Rayo VallecanoThe model puts Real Sociedad at 54%. The model leans toward Real Sociedad. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Real Sociedad are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Rayo Vallecano are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Real Sociedad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Real Sociedad will be without Odriozola, Soler, Sarr.
- Rayo Vallecano will be without Ramos L.F., Batalla A., Garcia Al., Kumbulla, Luengo.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 12 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Real Sociedad at 54%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Rayo Vallecano at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Real Sociedad. Real Sociedad is priced at 1.735. The draw is priced at 4.06. Rayo Vallecano is priced at 4.34.
Real Sociedad have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Rayo Vallecano have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 8 of their head-to-head meetings.
Real Sociedad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Real Sociedad average 1 goals per game this season. Real Sociedad average 52% possession. Rayo Vallecano average 1 goals per game this season. Rayo Vallecano average 51% possession.
The model gives 39% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Real Sociedad or Rayo Vallecano?
Our model rates Real Sociedad as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Real Sociedad wins, 8 draws, 5 Rayo Vallecano wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Real Sociedad
- 1Remiro
- 4Gorrotxategi
- 5Zubeldia
- 6Martin
- 9Oscarsson
- 11Guedes
- 14Kubo
- 17Gomez Se.
- 18Soler
- 22Fort
- 24Sucic
- Odriozola (2)
- Soler (3)
- Sarr (3)
Rayo Vallecano
- 2Ratiu A.
- 4Diaz
- 6Ciss
- 8Lopez Un.
- 10Camello
- 14Tsitaishvili
- 15Sadiq
- 17Giner Pedrosa
- 19Frutos J.
- 24Lejeune F.
- 25Audero
- Ramos L.F. (2)
- Batalla A. (2)
- Garcia Al. (2)
- Kumbulla (3)
- Luengo (3)
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 31:10 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Bilbao | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15:11 | 16 |
| 8 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15:14 | 15 |
| 9 |  Racing de Santander | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 17:30 | 14 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Alaves | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 12 |  Celta | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12:23 | 12 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante UD | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 8:20 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 9:23 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.