Villarreal vs Getafe: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Villarrealvs
GetafeThe model puts Villarreal at 64%. The model leans toward Villarreal. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Getafe (1-5-9).
- +Villarreal score more per game (1.0 at home vs 0.0 away).
- −Recent form favours Getafe.
- +Villarreal creates more chances (17 vs 7 shots per game).
- +Villarreal controls more of the ball (61% vs 35%).
- −Villarreal are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Villarreal have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Getafe have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Villarreal have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Villarreal will be without Alassane Diatta, Moreno G., Foyth, Akhomach.
- Getafe will be without Uche, Juanmi Jimenez, Romero.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 26 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 5 | ||||
| 3 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Villarreal at 64%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Getafe at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Villarreal. Villarreal is priced at 1.448. The draw is priced at 4.5. Getafe is priced at 7.1.
Villarreal have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Getafe have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Villarreal have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Getafe have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Getafe are on 4 wins in a row.
Villarreal average 1 goals per game this season. Villarreal average 61% possession. Getafe average 0 goals per game this season. Getafe average 35% possession.
The model gives 20% for both teams to score. The model gives 17% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Villarreal or Getafe?
Our model rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Getafe?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 Villarreal wins, 5 draws, 9 Getafe wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Villarreal
- 3Freeman A.
- 6Navarro
- 9Mikautadze
- 12Veiga R.
- 16Macia Coves C.
- 17Buchanan
- 18Gueye P.
- 19Pepe N.
- 23Cardona
- 24Saliba
- 25Gulacsi
- Alassane Diatta (2)
- Moreno G. (3)
- Foyth (3)
- Akhomach (3)
Getafe
- 2Dakonam
- 8Gudelj
- 10Satriano
- 11Terrats
- 13Soria D.
- 14Carvajal
- 15Boselli
- 19Unal
- 21Garcia
- 22Mojica J.
- 23Mangala O.
- Uche (2)
- Juanmi Jimenez (3)
- Romero (3)
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 31:10 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Bilbao | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15:11 | 16 |
| 8 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15:14 | 15 |
| 9 |  Racing de Santander | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 17:30 | 14 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Alaves | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 12 |  Celta | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 15 | Getafe | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12:23 | 12 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante UD | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 8:20 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 9:23 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.