Celta vs Levante UD: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Celtavs
Levante UDThe model puts Celta at 55%. The model leans toward Celta. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Celta score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Celta (9-2-4).
- +Celta creates more chances (10 vs 8 shots per game).
- −Celta are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Levante UD are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Celta have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Levante UD have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Celta have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Celta will be without Starfelt, Iglesias B., Nunez, Abdellaoui, Roman.
- Levante UD will be without Bardeli, Sanchez.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Celta at 55%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Levante UD at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Celta. Celta is priced at 1.875. The draw is priced at 3.66. Levante UD is priced at 4.06.
Celta have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Levante UD have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Celta have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Levante UD have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Celta average 2 goals per game this season. Celta average 47% possession. Levante UD average 1 goals per game this season. Levante UD average 44% possession.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Celta or Levante UD?
Our model rates Celta as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Celta vs Levante UD?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Celta wins, 2 draws, 4 Levante UD wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Celta
- 3Alonso Mar.
- 5Carreira
- 6Kourouma
- 9Jutlga F.
- 10Aspas I.
- 13Radu I.
- 14Febas
- 18Lago
- 20Rodriguez
- 22Galan J.
- 23Alvarez
- Starfelt (2)
- Iglesias B. (2)
- Nunez (2)
- Abdellaoui (2)
- Roman (3)
Levante UD
- 3Ndukve
- 4Barquilla
- 6Requena
- 7Brugue
- 8Olasagasti
- 9Romero
- 13Ryan M.
- 21Eyong E.
- 22Toljan
- 24Fernandez
- 29Perez
- Bardeli (3)
- Sanchez (3)
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 31:10 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Bilbao | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15:11 | 16 |
| 8 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15:14 | 15 |
| 9 |  Racing de Santander | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 17:30 | 14 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Alaves | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 12 | Celta | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12:23 | 12 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 | Levante UD | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 8:20 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 9:23 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.