Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya vs Pakhtakor Tashkent: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Al-Quwa Al-Jawiyavs
Pakhtakor TashkentThe model puts Pakhtakor Tashkent at 46%. The model leans toward Pakhtakor Tashkent. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya.
- −The head-to-head record favours Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya (2-1-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pakhtakor Tashkent have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Pakhtakor Tashkent is priced at 1.95.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya at 29%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Pakhtakor Tashkent at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Pakhtakor Tashkent. Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya is priced at 3.9. The draw is priced at 3.52. Pakhtakor Tashkent is priced at 1.95.
Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Pakhtakor Tashkent have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya or Pakhtakor Tashkent?
Our model rates Pakhtakor Tashkent as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 2 Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya wins, 1 draws, 0 Pakhtakor Tashkent wins.
Odds movement
League table
AFC Champions League Elite - League stage| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Kashima Antlers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Gamba Osaka | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 3 |  Beijing Guoan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Vissel Kobe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 6 |
| 5 |  Shanghai Port | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7:5 | 4 |
| 6 |  Darul Takzim | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:1 | 4 |
| 7 |  Daejeon Hana Citizen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 8 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:3 | 3 |
| 9 |  Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 3 |
| 10 |  Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Buriram United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 12 |  Ratchaburi | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4:7 | 0 |
| 13 |  Pohang Steelers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 14 |  Hanoi Police | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 15 |  Port | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 16 |  Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:10 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.