Napoli vs Lazio: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Napolivs
LazioThe model puts Napoli at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Lazio.
- −Lazio score more per game (2.0 at home vs 3.0 away).
- +Napoli creates more chances (15 vs 13 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Napoli are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Lazio are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Napoli have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lazio have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Napoli have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Napoli will be without Santos, Buongiorno, Lobotka, Favasuli, Spinazzola, David Neres.
- Lazio will be without Zaccagni, Gudmundsson.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Napoli at 40%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Lazio at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Napoli is priced at 2.304. The draw is priced at 3.64. Lazio is priced at 2.9.
Napoli have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Lazio have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Napoli have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Lazio have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Lazio are on 5 wins in a row.
Napoli average 2 goals per game this season. Napoli average 47% possession. Lazio average 3 goals per game this season. Lazio average 51% possession.
The model gives 79% for both teams to score. The model gives 82% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Napoli or Lazio?
Our model rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Napoli vs Lazio?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Napoli wins, 2 draws, 6 Lazio wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Napoli
- 1Meret
- 6Gilmour B.
- 8McTominay
- 11De Bruyne
- 13Rrahmani A.
- 16Marin
- 19Hojlund
- 21Politano
- 31Beukema
- 70Lang
- 99Zambo Anguissa
- Santos (2)
- Buongiorno (2)
- Lobotka (2)
- Favasuli (2)
- Spinazzola (3)
- David Neres (3)
Lazio
- 9Pinamonti
- 11Isaksen G.
- 14Noslin
- 15Floriani
- 16Frattesi
- 17Tavares N.
- 21Belahyane
- 24Taylor Ke.
- 25Provstgaard
- 35Mandas
- 37Sutalo
- Zaccagni (2)
- Gudmundsson (3)
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Roma | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 31:10 | 27 |
| 3 |  Internazionale Milano | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  Milan | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone Calcio | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 24:15 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Bologna 1909 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 16:14 | 17 |
| 9 |  Cagliari Calcio | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 10:15 | 16 |
| 10 | Napoli | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 11 |  Torino | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15:17 | 14 |
| 12 |  Genoa | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 13 |  Atalanta | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 11 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 12:22 | 10 |
| 15 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 16 |  Parma | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 16:29 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza 1912 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Unione Venezia | 11 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8:21 | 6 |
| 20 |  Udinese Calcio | 11 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 12:25 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.