JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs Mito HollyHock: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
JEF United Ichihara Chibavs
Mito HollyHockThe model puts JEF United Ichihara Chiba at 52%. The model leans toward JEF United Ichihara Chiba. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours JEF United Ichihara Chiba.
- +The head-to-head record favours JEF United Ichihara Chiba (8-3-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Mito HollyHock have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- JEF United Ichihara Chiba is priced at 1.975.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts JEF United Ichihara Chiba at 52%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Mito HollyHock at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward JEF United Ichihara Chiba. JEF United Ichihara Chiba is priced at 1.975. The draw is priced at 3.44. Mito HollyHock is priced at 3.9.
JEF United Ichihara Chiba have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Mito HollyHock have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
JEF United Ichihara Chiba have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Mito HollyHock have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, JEF United Ichihara Chiba or Mito HollyHock?
Our model rates JEF United Ichihara Chiba as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs Mito HollyHock?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 JEF United Ichihara Chiba wins, 3 draws, 4 Mito HollyHock wins.
Match statistics
JEF United Ichihara Chiba
- 2Uduka
- 6Pacheco
- 8Tsukui
- 13Suzuki D.
- 15Mae
- 19Suarez J.A.
- 29Yamura
- 37Himeno
- 41Yasui
- 67Hidaka
- 99de Souza
Mito HollyHock
- 2Fofana
- 3Osaki
- 9Nemoto
- 16Tamura
- 17Itakura
- 19Semba
- 20Funabashi
- 27Slowik
- 29Tada K.
- 30Okumura J.
- 44Nishihara
League table
Japan. J-League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tokyo | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 33:8 | 33 |
| 2 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 31:20 | 31 |
| 3 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 32:10 | 29 |
| 4 |  Machida Zelvia | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 30:10 | 28 |
| 5 |  Vissel Kobe | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 21:12 | 26 |
| 6 |  Kashima Antlers | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 29:24 | 23 |
| 7 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 21:15 | 22 |
| 8 |  Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 28:24 | 22 |
| 9 |  Urawa Red Diamonds | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 21:27 | 21 |
| 10 |  Fagiano Okayama | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 16:22 | 17 |
| 11 |  Kyoto Sanga | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 19:23 | 16 |
| 12 |  Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 15:23 | 14 |
| 13 |  Cerezo Osaka | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 14 |  Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 12:22 | 14 |
| 15 |  Shimizu S-Pulse | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 10:23 | 14 |
| 16 |  V-Varen Nagasaki | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 17:22 | 13 |
| 17 |  Gamba Osaka | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14:21 | 12 |
| 18 | JEF United Ichihara Chiba | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 15:24 | 10 |
| 19 | Mito HollyHock | 13 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 12:25 | 9 |
| 20 |  Avispa Fukuoka | 14 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 14:25 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.