Deportivo Alaves vs Deportivo de A Coruna: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Deportivo Alavesvs
Deportivo de A CorunaThe model puts Deportivo Alaves at 47%. The model leans toward Deportivo Alaves. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Deportivo Alaves have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo de A Coruna have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Alaves have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Deportivo Alaves is priced at 2.03.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Deportivo Alaves at 47%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Deportivo de A Coruna at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Deportivo Alaves. Deportivo Alaves is priced at 2.03. The draw is priced at 3.4. Deportivo de A Coruna is priced at 3.74.
Deportivo Alaves have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportivo de A Coruna have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Deportivo Alaves have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo de A Coruna have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Deportivo Alaves average 3 goals per game this season. Deportivo Alaves average 52% possession. Deportivo de A Coruna average 1 goals per game this season. Deportivo de A Coruna average 39% possession.
The model gives 67% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportivo Alaves or Deportivo de A Coruna?
Our model rates Deportivo Alaves as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportivo Alaves vs Deportivo de A Coruna?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Deportivo Alaves wins, 4 draws, 6 Deportivo de A Coruna wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 31:10 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Bilbao | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15:11 | 16 |
| 8 | Deportivo de A Coruna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15:14 | 15 |
| 9 |  Racing de Santander | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 17:30 | 14 |
| 10 | Deportivo Alaves | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 12 |  Celta | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12:23 | 12 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante UD | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 8:20 | 9 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 12 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 9:23 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.