Manchester City vs Bournemouth: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Manchester Cityvs
BournemouthThe model puts Manchester City at 64%. The model leans toward Manchester City. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Bournemouth (1-1-13).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Manchester City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bournemouth have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Manchester City have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Manchester City is priced at 1.43.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Manchester City at 64%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Bournemouth at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Manchester City. Manchester City is priced at 1.43. The draw is priced at 5.05. Bournemouth is priced at 6.3.
Manchester City have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Bournemouth have won 13 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Manchester City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Bournemouth have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Manchester City or Bournemouth?
Our model rates Manchester City as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Manchester City vs Bournemouth?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 Manchester City wins, 1 draws, 13 Bournemouth wins.
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Everton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Manchester United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Newcastle United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Sunderland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Coventry City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Crystal Palace | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Hull City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Ipswich Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 | Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Leeds United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 20 |  Brentford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.