St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
St. Louis Cityvs
Sporting Kansas CityThe model puts St. Louis City at 71%. The model leans toward St. Louis City. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours St. Louis City.
- +St. Louis City score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +St. Louis City creates more chances (15 vs 8 shots per game).
- +St. Louis City controls more of the ball (50% vs 44%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- St. Louis City have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Louis City have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- St. Louis City is priced at 1.39.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 12 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts St. Louis City at 71%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Sporting Kansas City at 12%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward St. Louis City. St. Louis City is priced at 1.39. The draw is priced at 5.05. Sporting Kansas City is priced at 7.2.
St. Louis City have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Sporting Kansas City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
St. Louis City have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Louis City are on 2 wins in a row. Sporting Kansas City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
St. Louis City average 2 goals per game this season. St. Louis City average 50% possession. Sporting Kansas City average 1 goals per game this season. Sporting Kansas City average 44% possession.
The model gives 39% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, St. Louis City or Sporting Kansas City?
Our model rates St. Louis City as the most likely outcome at 71% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for St. Louis City vs Sporting Kansas City?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 St. Louis City wins, 3 draws, 2 Sporting Kansas City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34:12 | 32 |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 34:15 | 32 |
| 3 |  Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 26:19 | 26 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30:22 | 25 |
| 5 |  Los Angeles | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 24:17 | 24 |
| 6 |  Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17:11 | 24 |
| 7 |  Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19:23 | 22 |
| 8 |  Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18:22 | 22 |
| 9 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22:22 | 20 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 30:27 | 17 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 25:24 | 16 |
| 12 | St. Louis City | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 16:20 | 16 |
| 13 |  Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 22:28 | 14 |
| 14 |  Austin | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 19:31 | 14 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 14:36 | 11 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.