Spain vs Belgium: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Spainvs
BelgiumThe model puts Spain at 58%. The model leans toward Spain. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Belgium (0-1-5).
- +Belgium are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Spain have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Belgium have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Belgium will be without Debast, Onana.
- Spain is priced at 1.66.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Spain at 58%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Belgium at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 4-1.
The market leans toward Spain. Spain is priced at 1.66. The draw is priced at 4.175. Belgium is priced at 5.77.
Belgium have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Spain have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Belgium have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Spain average 2 goals per game this season. Spain average 69% possession. Belgium average 5 goals per game this season. Belgium average 49% possession.
The model gives 82% for both teams to score. The model gives 93% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Spain or Belgium?
Our model rates Spain as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Spain vs Belgium?
A scoreline around 4-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Spain wins, 1 draws, 5 Belgium wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.