Marítimo vs Casa Pia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Marítimovs
Casa PiaThe model puts Marítimo at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Casa Pia are dealing with notable absentees.
- +The head-to-head record favours Marítimo (2-1-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Marítimo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Casa Pia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Marítimo have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Casa Pia will be without Batista, Gomes.
- Marítimo is priced at 2.456.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Marítimo at 41%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Casa Pia at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Marítimo is priced at 2.456. The draw is priced at 3.26. Casa Pia is priced at 2.94.
Marítimo have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Casa Pia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Marítimo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Casa Pia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Marítimo or Casa Pia?
Our model rates Marítimo as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Marítimo vs Casa Pia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 Marítimo wins, 1 draws, 1 Casa Pia wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Marítimo
- 0Pastor
- 0Henrique
- 0Correia
- 0Fernandez
- 0Juliao I.
- 0Guzzo
- 0Danilovic
- 0Bouzaidi
- 0Andrade
- 0Tejon
- 0Butzke
Casa Pia
- 0Sequeira
- 0Conte A.
- 0Rocha Lima K.
- 0Goulart
- 0Geraldes A.
- 0Ofori
- 0Perez Seb.
- 0Costa Rocha D.F.
- 0Pereira
- 0Livolant
- 0Araújo
- Batista (Missing Player)
- Gomes (Questionable)
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 2 |  Estoril | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 3 |  Estrela da Amadora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Moreirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Nacional da Madeira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Arouca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Academico de Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.