Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Vitoria Guimaraesvs
AroucaThe model puts Vitoria Guimaraes at 48%. The model leans toward Vitoria Guimaraes. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Arouca.
- −The head-to-head record favours Arouca (1-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Vitoria Guimaraes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arouca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vitoria Guimaraes have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Vitoria Guimaraes is priced at 1.875.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Vitoria Guimaraes at 48%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Arouca at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Vitoria Guimaraes. Vitoria Guimaraes is priced at 1.875. The draw is priced at 3.58. Arouca is priced at 4.16.
Vitoria Guimaraes have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Arouca have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Vitoria Guimaraes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Arouca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Vitoria Guimaraes or Arouca?
Our model rates Vitoria Guimaraes as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Arouca?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Vitoria Guimaraes wins, 2 draws, 3 Arouca wins.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Estrela da Amadora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 2 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 3 |  Estoril | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 7 |  Moreirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 8 |  Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 9 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 10 |  Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 11 |  Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a4b66565e99bd05c6493a40 |
| 12 |  Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 13 |  Nacional da Madeira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 14 | Arouca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 15 |  Casa Pia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a4b66565e99bd05c6493a40 |
| 16 |  Academico de Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 17 |  Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  Famalicao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.