Porto vs Alverca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Portovs
AlvercaThe model puts Porto at 81%. The model leans toward Porto. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Porto (11-3-0).
- −Porto are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Alverca are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Porto have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Alverca have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Porto have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Porto will be without Samu, Bednarek, Ramos Cl., Miranda, Souza.
- Alverca will be without Martinez, Raveyre, Abdulai.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 5 | ||||
| 2 | 19 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 15 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 9 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Porto at 81%. The model puts the draw at 12%. The model puts Alverca at 7%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Porto. Porto is priced at 1.175. The draw is priced at 7.3. Alverca is priced at 14.5.
Porto have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Porto have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Porto are on 2 wins in a row. Alverca have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 26% for both teams to score. The model gives 51% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Porto or Alverca?
Our model rates Porto as the most likely outcome at 81% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Porto vs Alverca?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 14 meetings: 11 Porto wins, 3 draws, 0 Alverca wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Porto
- 0Costa D.
- 0Sanusi
- 0Perez Ne.
- 0Kiwior
- 0Fernandes
- 0Froholdt
- 0Varela
- 0Gomes
- 0Veiga
- 0Pepe
- 0Silva And.
- Samu (Missing Player)
- Bednarek (Questionable)
- Ramos Cl. (Missing Player)
- Miranda (Missing Player)
- Souza (Missing Player)
Alverca
- 0Mateus
- 0Meupiyou
- 0Gomez S.
- 0Baseya
- 0James
- 0Abdulai
- 0Guy
- 0Touaizi
- 0Chiquinho
- 0Semedo
- 0Figueiredo
- Martinez (Missing Player)
- Raveyre (Missing Player)
- Abdulai (Missing Player)
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Marítimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 4 |  Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 5 |  Estrela da Amadora | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 6 |  Estoril | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 7 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 8 |  Gil Vicente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Rio Ave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Moreirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 | Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Braga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Nacional da Madeira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Academico de Viseu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 | Alverca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.