Casa Pia vs Benfica: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Casa Piavs
BenficaThe model puts Benfica at 81%. The model leans toward Benfica. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Benfica.
- +The head-to-head record favours Benfica (1-3-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Casa Pia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Benfica have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Casa Pia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Benfica is priced at 1.185.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 18 | 19 | 13 | 7 | 3 |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Casa Pia at 7%. The model puts the draw at 13%. The model puts Benfica at 81%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Benfica. Casa Pia is priced at 14.5. The draw is priced at 6.95. Benfica is priced at 1.185.
Casa Pia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Benfica have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Casa Pia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Benfica have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 27% for both teams to score. The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Casa Pia or Benfica?
Our model rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 81% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Benfica?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 9 meetings: 1 Casa Pia wins, 3 draws, 5 Benfica wins.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Marítimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 6 |  Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 7 |  Nacional da Madeira | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 8 |  Academico de Viseu | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 9 |  Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 10 |  Estrela da Amadora | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 11 |  Estoril | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 12 |  Santa Clara | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 13 |  Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 14 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 15 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 18 |  Alverca | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.