Porto vs Arouca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Portovs
AroucaThe model puts Porto at 82%. The model leans toward Porto. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Porto (12-1-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Porto have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arouca have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Porto have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Porto is priced at 1.165.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 13 | 4 | ||||
| 2 | 18 | 6 | ||||
| 3 | 16 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 11 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 6 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Porto at 82%. The model puts the draw at 12%. The model puts Arouca at 6%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Porto. Porto is priced at 1.165. The draw is priced at 7.6. Arouca is priced at 15.
Porto have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings. Arouca have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Porto have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Porto are on 4 wins in a row. Arouca have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Arouca are on 3 wins in a row.
Porto average 2 goals per game this season. Porto average 54% possession. Arouca average 1 goals per game this season. Arouca average 42% possession.
The model gives 26% for both teams to score. The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Porto or Arouca?
Our model rates Porto as the most likely outcome at 82% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Porto vs Arouca?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 12 Porto wins, 1 draws, 2 Arouca wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 6 |
| 2 | Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 6 |
| 3 |  Marítimo | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 4 |  Nacional da Madeira | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 5 |  Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 6 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 4 |
| 7 |  Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 8 |  Estrela da Amadora | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 2 |
| 9 |  Benfica | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 10 |  Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 11 |  Academico de Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 12 |  Famalicao | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 13 |  Estoril | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 14 |  Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 15 |  Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.