Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sevillavs
Atletico MadridThe model puts Atletico Madrid at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Atletico Madrid (4-3-8).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sevilla have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sevilla have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atletico Madrid is priced at 2.435.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Sevilla at 33%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Atletico Madrid at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Sevilla is priced at 2.885. The draw is priced at 3.38. Atletico Madrid is priced at 2.435.
Sevilla have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Atletico Madrid have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sevilla have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Atletico Madrid have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Atletico Madrid are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sevilla or Atletico Madrid?
Our model rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Sevilla wins, 3 draws, 8 Atletico Madrid wins.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Alaves | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:1 | 4 |
| 2 |  Espanyol | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 6 |  Racing de Santander | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 7 |  Elche | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 |  Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Celta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Athletic Bilbao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 19 |  Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 20 |  Levante UD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.