Celta vs Athletic Bilbao: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Celtavs
Athletic BilbaoThe model puts Celta at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Celta.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Celta have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Athletic Bilbao have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Celta have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Celta is priced at 2.344.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Celta at 39%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Athletic Bilbao at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Celta is priced at 2.344. The draw is priced at 3.28. Athletic Bilbao is priced at 3.096.
Celta have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Athletic Bilbao have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Celta have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Athletic Bilbao have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 41% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Celta or Athletic Bilbao?
Our model rates Celta as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Celta vs Athletic Bilbao?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Celta wins, 3 draws, 6 Athletic Bilbao wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Alaves | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:1 | 4 |
| 2 |  Espanyol | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 6 |  Racing de Santander | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 7 |  Elche | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 |  Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 | Celta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 | Athletic Bilbao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 19 |  Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 20 |  Levante UD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.