Deportivo Alaves vs Villarreal: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Deportivo Alavesvs
VillarrealThe model puts Villarreal at 36%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Deportivo Alaves have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Villarreal have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Alaves have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Villarreal is priced at 2.56.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Deportivo Alaves at 36%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Villarreal at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Deportivo Alaves is priced at 2.665. The draw is priced at 3.48. Villarreal is priced at 2.56.
Deportivo Alaves have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Villarreal have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Deportivo Alaves have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Villarreal have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportivo Alaves or Villarreal?
Our model rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 36% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportivo Alaves vs Villarreal?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Deportivo Alaves wins, 3 draws, 6 Villarreal wins.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sevilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 2 | Deportivo Alaves | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:1 | 4 |
| 3 |  Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 |  Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 8 |  Racing de Santander | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 9 |  Elche | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 10 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 11 |  Celta | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 12 |  Valencia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 14 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 19 |  Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 20 |  Levante UD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.