Newcastle United vs Bournemouth: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Newcastle Unitedvs
BournemouthThe model puts Newcastle United at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Newcastle United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bournemouth have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Newcastle United have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Newcastle United is priced at 2.33.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Newcastle United at 41%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Bournemouth at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Newcastle United is priced at 2.33. The draw is priced at 3.66. Bournemouth is priced at 2.856.
Newcastle United have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Bournemouth have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 7 of their head-to-head meetings.
Newcastle United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Bournemouth have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Newcastle United or Bournemouth?
Our model rates Newcastle United as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Newcastle United vs Bournemouth?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Newcastle United wins, 7 draws, 3 Bournemouth wins.
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 7 |  Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 9 |  Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 10 |  Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 12 |  Fulham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 13 |  Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Nottingham Forest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 19 |  Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 20 |  Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.