Arouca vs Marítimo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Aroucavs
MarítimoThe model puts Arouca at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Marítimo.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Arouca have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Marítimo have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arouca have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Arouca is priced at 2.42.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Arouca at 38%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Marítimo at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Arouca is priced at 2.42. The draw is priced at 3.184. Marítimo is priced at 3.075.
Arouca have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Marítimo have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Arouca have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Marítimo have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Arouca average 4 goals per game this season. Arouca average 51% possession. Marítimo average 2 goals per game this season. Marítimo average 33% possession.
The model gives 85% for both teams to score. The model gives 89% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Arouca or Marítimo?
Our model rates Arouca as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Arouca vs Marítimo?
A scoreline around 3-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 14 meetings: 6 Arouca wins, 3 draws, 5 Marítimo wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 9 |
| 2 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 5 | Arouca | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 6 |  Benfica | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9:2 | 4 |
| 7 |  Nacional da Madeira | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 8 |  Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 9 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 10 |  Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Estrela da Amadora | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 2 |
| 12 |  Academico de Viseu | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 2 |
| 13 |  Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 15 |  Estoril | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:5 | 1 |
| 16 |  Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 17 |  Alverca | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.