Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Aston Villavs
Nottingham ForestThe model puts Aston Villa at 45%. The model leans toward Aston Villa. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Aston Villa (8-3-4).
- −Aston Villa are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Nottingham Forest are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Aston Villa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Aston Villa have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Aston Villa will be without Gomes da Silva, Madjo, Manzambi, Goretzka, Onana.
- Nottingham Forest will be without Savona, Sangare I..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Aston Villa at 45%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Nottingham Forest at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Aston Villa. Aston Villa is priced at 2.208. The draw is priced at 3.38. Nottingham Forest is priced at 3.28.
Aston Villa have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Nottingham Forest have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Aston Villa have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Nottingham Forest have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Aston Villa average 0 goals per game this season. Aston Villa average 39% possession. Nottingham Forest average 2 goals per game this season. Nottingham Forest average 31% possession.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Aston Villa or Nottingham Forest?
Our model rates Aston Villa as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Aston Villa wins, 3 draws, 4 Nottingham Forest wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.