Sunderland vs Arsenal: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sunderlandvs
ArsenalThe model puts Arsenal at 54%. The model leans toward Arsenal. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Sunderland.
- −The head-to-head record favours Sunderland (10-4-1).
- +Sunderland are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Arsenal are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Sunderland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arsenal have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sunderland have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sunderland will be without Diarra, Mundle.
- Arsenal will be without Mosquera, Saliba W., Timber.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sunderland at 23%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Arsenal at 54%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Arsenal. Sunderland is priced at 6. The draw is priced at 3.72. Arsenal is priced at 1.62.
Sunderland have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Arsenal have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sunderland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Arsenal have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sunderland average 1 goals per game this season. Sunderland average 41% possession. Arsenal average 1 goals per game this season. Arsenal average 61% possession.
The model gives 40% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sunderland or Arsenal?
Our model rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Arsenal?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Sunderland wins, 4 draws, 1 Arsenal wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.