Leeds United vs Newcastle United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Leeds Unitedvs
Newcastle UnitedThe model puts Leeds United at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Leeds United.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Leeds United are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Newcastle United are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Leeds United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Newcastle United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Leeds United have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Leeds United will be without Rodon, Joseph.
- Newcastle United will be without Jaouen, Osula, Burn D., Joelinton.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Leeds United at 43%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Newcastle United at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Leeds United is priced at 2.33. The draw is priced at 3.44. Newcastle United is priced at 2.995.
Leeds United have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Newcastle United have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 7 of their head-to-head meetings.
Leeds United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Newcastle United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Leeds United average 1 goals per game this season. Leeds United average 47% possession. Newcastle United average 2 goals per game this season. Newcastle United average 42% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Leeds United or Newcastle United?
Our model rates Leeds United as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Leeds United vs Newcastle United?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Leeds United wins, 7 draws, 3 Newcastle United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.