Athletic Bilbao vs Elche: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Athletic Bilbaovs
ElcheThe model puts Athletic Bilbao at 70%. The model leans toward Athletic Bilbao. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Athletic Bilbao.
- +The head-to-head record favours Athletic Bilbao (6-4-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Athletic Bilbao have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Elche have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Athletic Bilbao have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Athletic Bilbao is priced at 1.41.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 23 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Athletic Bilbao at 70%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Elche at 12%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Athletic Bilbao. Athletic Bilbao is priced at 1.41. The draw is priced at 4.8. Elche is priced at 7.3.
Athletic Bilbao have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Elche have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Athletic Bilbao have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Athletic Bilbao are on 2 wins in a row. Elche have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Elche average 1 goals per game this season. Elche average 61% possession.
The model gives 24% for both teams to score. The model gives 28% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Athletic Bilbao or Elche?
Our model rates Athletic Bilbao as the most likely outcome at 70% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Athletic Bilbao vs Elche?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 6 Athletic Bilbao wins, 4 draws, 3 Elche wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:2 | 12 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Alaves | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10:3 | 10 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10:3 | 9 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 8 |
| 6 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 7 |  Sevilla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 8 |  Osasuna | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:6 | 7 |
| 9 |  Real Sociedad | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 10 | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 11 |  Levante UD | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | 4 |
| 13 |  Racing de Santander | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:8 | 4 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Celta | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 17 |  Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | 2 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1:7 | 2 |
| 19 | Elche | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5:12 | 1 |
| 20 |  Valencia | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1:9 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.