Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Real Madridvs
Rayo VallecanoThe model puts Real Madrid at 86%. The model leans toward Real Madrid. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Real Madrid.
- +The head-to-head record favours Real Madrid (8-5-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Real Madrid have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Madrid have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Real Madrid is priced at 1.112.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 25 | 5 | ||||
| 2 | 22 | 4 | ||||
| 3 | 12 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Real Madrid at 86%. The model puts the draw at 10%. The model puts Rayo Vallecano at 4%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Real Madrid. Real Madrid is priced at 1.112. The draw is priced at 9.1. Rayo Vallecano is priced at 22.
Real Madrid have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Rayo Vallecano have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Real Madrid have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Rayo Vallecano have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Rayo Vallecano average 1 goals per game this season. Rayo Vallecano average 51% possession.
The model gives 15% for both teams to score. The model gives 30% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Real Madrid or Rayo Vallecano?
Our model rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 86% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Real Madrid wins, 5 draws, 2 Rayo Vallecano wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:2 | 12 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Alaves | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10:3 | 10 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10:3 | 9 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 8 |
| 6 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 7 |  Sevilla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 8 |  Osasuna | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:6 | 7 |
| 9 |  Real Sociedad | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 10 |  Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 11 |  Levante UD | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | 4 |
| 13 |  Racing de Santander | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:8 | 4 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Celta | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 17 |  Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | 2 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1:7 | 2 |
| 19 |  Elche | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5:12 | 1 |
| 20 |  Valencia | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1:9 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.