Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Athletic Bilbaovs
Deportivo AlavesThe model puts Athletic Bilbao at 52%. The model leans toward Athletic Bilbao. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Deportivo Alaves.
- −The head-to-head record favours Deportivo Alaves (4-4-7).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Athletic Bilbao have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Alaves have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Athletic Bilbao have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Athletic Bilbao is priced at 1.75.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Athletic Bilbao at 52%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Deportivo Alaves at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Athletic Bilbao. Athletic Bilbao is priced at 1.75. The draw is priced at 3.56. Deportivo Alaves is priced at 4.96.
Athletic Bilbao have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportivo Alaves have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Athletic Bilbao have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Alaves have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Deportivo Alaves average 3 goals per game this season. Deportivo Alaves average 52% possession.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 54% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Athletic Bilbao or Deportivo Alaves?
Our model rates Athletic Bilbao as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Athletic Bilbao wins, 4 draws, 7 Deportivo Alaves wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:2 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo Alaves | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11:5 | 10 |
| 3 |  Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:6 | 10 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10:3 | 9 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 6 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 8 |
| 7 |  Espanyol | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 9 |  Racing de Santander | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9:9 | 7 |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 11 |  Osasuna | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5:8 | 7 |
| 12 | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 13 |  Levante UD | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Celta | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 17 |  Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | 2 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1:7 | 2 |
| 19 |  Elche | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5:12 | 1 |
| 20 |  Valencia | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1:10 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.