Valencia vs Real Sociedad: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Valenciavs
Real SociedadThe model puts Valencia at 45%. The model leans toward Valencia. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Real Sociedad.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Valencia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Valencia have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Valencia is priced at 2.208.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Valencia at 45%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Real Sociedad at 28%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Valencia. Valencia is priced at 2.208. The draw is priced at 3.48. Real Sociedad is priced at 3.192.
Valencia have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Real Sociedad have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 7 of their head-to-head meetings.
Valencia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Real Sociedad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Valencia or Real Sociedad?
Our model rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Valencia wins, 7 draws, 4 Real Sociedad wins.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:2 | 12 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Alaves | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11:5 | 10 |
| 3 |  Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:6 | 10 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10:3 | 9 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 6 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 8 |
| 7 |  Espanyol | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 9 |  Racing de Santander | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9:9 | 7 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 11 |  Osasuna | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5:8 | 7 |
| 12 |  Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 13 |  Levante UD | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Celta | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 17 |  Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | 2 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1:7 | 2 |
| 19 |  Elche | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5:12 | 1 |
| 20 | Valencia | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1:10 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.