Liverpool vs Manchester City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Liverpoolvs
Manchester CityThe model puts Manchester City at 46%. The model leans toward Manchester City. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Manchester City.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Liverpool are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Manchester City are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Liverpool have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Manchester City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liverpool have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Liverpool will be without Leoni, Bradley, Gakpo, Isak Al., Chiesa, Ekitike.
- Manchester City will be without O'Reilly N., Foden.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Liverpool at 29%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Manchester City at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Manchester City. Liverpool is priced at 3.24. The draw is priced at 3.7. Manchester City is priced at 2.104.
Liverpool have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Manchester City have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Liverpool have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Manchester City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Liverpool average 1 goals per game this season. Liverpool average 63% possession. Manchester City average 3 goals per game this season. Manchester City average 60% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 70% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Liverpool or Manchester City?
Our model rates Manchester City as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Manchester City?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Liverpool wins, 4 draws, 5 Manchester City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Liverpool
- 1Becker A.
- 4van Dijk
- 5Jacquet
- 6Kerkez
- 7Wirtz
- 8Szoboszlai D.
- 10Mac Allister
- 23Munoz
- 29Barcola B.
- 33Araujo R.
- 67Koumas
- Leoni (Missing Player)
- Bradley (Missing Player)
- Gakpo (Missing Player)
- Isak Al. (Missing Player)
- Chiesa (Questionable)
- Ekitike (Missing Player)
Manchester City
- 1Donnarumma J.
- 3Dias
- 5Anderson E.
- 6Guehi M.
- 7Ndiaye
- 9Haaland E.
- 10Cherki
- 17Fernandez E.
- 24Gvardiol
- 27Nunes Ma.
- 42Semenyo A.
- O'Reilly N. (Questionable)
- Foden (Missing Player)
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13:5 | 15 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10:5 | 15 |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18:5 | 13 |
| 4 |  Brentford | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12:6 | 10 |
| 5 |  Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15:13 | 10 |
| 6 |  Leeds United | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 7 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 8 |  Everton | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6:3 | 9 |
| 9 |  Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 10 |  Hull City | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6:4 | 8 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9:9 | 8 |
| 12 |  Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:9 | 6 |
| 13 |  Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | 5 |
| 14 |  Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6:11 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:12 | 4 |
| 17 |  Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7:13 | 3 |
| 18 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3:9 | 3 |
| 19 |  Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1:10 | 3 |
| 20 |  Fulham | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6:10 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.