Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Osasunavs
Rayo VallecanoThe model puts Osasuna at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Rayo Vallecano.
- −The head-to-head record favours Rayo Vallecano (5-2-8).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Osasuna have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Osasuna have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Osasuna is priced at 2.144.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Osasuna at 42%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Rayo Vallecano at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Osasuna. Osasuna is priced at 2.144. The draw is priced at 3.26. Rayo Vallecano is priced at 3.56.
Osasuna have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Rayo Vallecano have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Osasuna have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Rayo Vallecano average 1 goals per game this season. Rayo Vallecano average 51% possession.
The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 27% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Osasuna or Rayo Vallecano?
Our model rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Osasuna wins, 2 draws, 8 Rayo Vallecano wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:2 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14:4 | 12 |
| 3 |  Deportivo Alaves | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11:5 | 10 |
| 4 |  Sevilla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:6 | 10 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 6 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 8 |
| 7 |  Espanyol | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 9 |  Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 10 |  Racing de Santander | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9:9 | 7 |
| 11 |  Real Sociedad | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5:8 | 7 |
| 13 |  Levante UD | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 15 | Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:14 | 4 |
| 16 |  Celta | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 17 |  Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | 2 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1:7 | 2 |
| 19 |  Elche | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6:13 | 2 |
| 20 |  Valencia | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1:10 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.