Estoril vs Casa Pia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Estorilvs
Casa PiaThe model puts Estoril at 55%. The model leans toward Estoril. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Estoril.
- +The head-to-head record favours Estoril (7-5-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Estoril have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Casa Pia have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Estoril have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Estoril is priced at 1.82.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24 | 10 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 24 | 10 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Estoril at 55%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Casa Pia at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Estoril. Estoril is priced at 1.82. The draw is priced at 3.68. Casa Pia is priced at 4.3.
Estoril have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Casa Pia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Estoril have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Casa Pia have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Estoril average 1 goals per game this season. Estoril average 50% possession. Casa Pia average 0 goals per game this season. Casa Pia average 61% possession.
The model gives 22% for both teams to score. The model gives 17% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Estoril or Casa Pia?
Our model rates Estoril as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Estoril vs Casa Pia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 14 meetings: 7 Estoril wins, 5 draws, 2 Casa Pia wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15:2 | 18 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21:4 | 16 |
| 3 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15:6 | 14 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 6 |  Estrela da Amadora | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11:9 | 9 |
| 7 |  Academico de Viseu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | 8 |
| 8 |  Braga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Marítimo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:11 | 5 |
| 12 |  Famalicao | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5:7 | 4 |
| 13 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 14 |  Nacional da Madeira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:11 | 4 |
| 15 |  Moreirense | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:12 | 4 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2:11 | 3 |
| 17 | Estoril | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:7 | 2 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1:15 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.