Porto vs Benfica: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Portovs
BenficaThe model puts Benfica at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Porto.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Porto have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Benfica have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Porto have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Benfica is priced at 2.536.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Porto at 34%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Benfica at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-4.
The market frames this as a close contest. Porto is priced at 2.73. The draw is priced at 3.42. Benfica is priced at 2.536.
Porto have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Benfica have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Porto have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Benfica have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Benfica are on 2 wins in a row.
Porto average 2 goals per game this season. Porto average 54% possession. Benfica average 7 goals per game this season. Benfica average 64% possession.
The model gives 95% for both teams to score. The model gives 98% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Porto or Benfica?
Our model rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Porto vs Benfica?
A scoreline around 3-4 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Porto wins, 4 draws, 6 Benfica wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15:2 | 18 |
| 2 | Benfica | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21:4 | 16 |
| 3 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15:6 | 14 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 6 |  Estrela da Amadora | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11:9 | 9 |
| 7 |  Academico de Viseu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | 8 |
| 8 |  Braga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Marítimo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:11 | 5 |
| 12 |  Famalicao | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5:7 | 4 |
| 13 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 14 |  Nacional da Madeira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:11 | 4 |
| 15 |  Moreirense | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:12 | 4 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2:11 | 3 |
| 17 |  Estoril | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:7 | 2 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1:15 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.