Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Rayo Vallecanovs
Athletic BilbaoThe model puts Athletic Bilbao at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Athletic Bilbao (1-3-11).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Athletic Bilbao have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Athletic Bilbao is priced at 2.34.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17 | 16 | 8 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Rayo Vallecano at 31%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Athletic Bilbao at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Rayo Vallecano is priced at 3.01. The draw is priced at 3.4. Athletic Bilbao is priced at 2.34.
Rayo Vallecano have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Athletic Bilbao have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Athletic Bilbao have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Rayo Vallecano average 1 goals per game this season. Rayo Vallecano average 51% possession.
The model gives 35% for both teams to score. The model gives 27% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Rayo Vallecano or Athletic Bilbao?
Our model rates Athletic Bilbao as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 Rayo Vallecano wins, 3 draws, 11 Athletic Bilbao wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31:7 | 21 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16:7 | 16 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9:7 | 16 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18:8 | 15 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:9 | 13 |
| 6 |  Deportivo Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11:6 | 11 |
| 7 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10:8 | 10 |
| 8 |  Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9:13 | 10 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13:12 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 8 |
| 11 |  Getafe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4:7 | 8 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 13 |  Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6:13 | 8 |
| 14 |  Celta | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8:6 | 7 |
| 15 |  Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10:10 | 7 |
| 16 |  Racing de Santander | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11:21 | 7 |
| 17 |  Levante UD | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:12 | 5 |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11:17 | 5 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4:13 | 4 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3:12 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.