Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Rayo Vallecanovs
Athletic BilbaoThe model puts Athletic Bilbao at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Athletic Bilbao (1-3-11).
- +Recent form favours Athletic Bilbao.
- +Rayo Vallecano are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Athletic Bilbao are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Athletic Bilbao have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Rayo Vallecano will be without Batalla A., Balliu, Ramos L.F..
- Athletic Bilbao will be without Arroyo, Djalo, Sancet, Williams.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Rayo Vallecano at 32%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Athletic Bilbao at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Rayo Vallecano is priced at 2.825. The draw is priced at 3.22. Athletic Bilbao is priced at 2.57.
Rayo Vallecano have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Athletic Bilbao have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Rayo Vallecano have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Athletic Bilbao have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Rayo Vallecano average 2 goals per game this season. Rayo Vallecano average 51% possession. Athletic Bilbao average 1 goals per game this season. Athletic Bilbao average 39% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Rayo Vallecano or Athletic Bilbao?
Our model rates Athletic Bilbao as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 Rayo Vallecano wins, 3 draws, 11 Athletic Bilbao wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.