Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Deportivo Alavesvs
Atletico MadridThe model puts Atletico Madrid at 54%. The model leans toward Atletico Madrid. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Deportivo Alaves (10-3-2).
- +Recent form favours Atletico Madrid.
- +Atletico Madrid controls more of the ball (42% vs 55%).
- +Deportivo Alaves are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Deportivo Alaves have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Alaves have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Deportivo Alaves will be without Garces, Koski V., Rodriguez.
- Atletico Madrid is priced at 1.79.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Deportivo Alaves at 23%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Atletico Madrid at 54%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Atletico Madrid. Deportivo Alaves is priced at 4.44. The draw is priced at 3.7. Atletico Madrid is priced at 1.79.
Deportivo Alaves have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Atletico Madrid have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Deportivo Alaves have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Atletico Madrid have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Deportivo Alaves average 2 goals per game this season. Deportivo Alaves average 42% possession. Atletico Madrid average 2 goals per game this season. Atletico Madrid average 55% possession.
The model gives 66% for both teams to score. The model gives 70% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportivo Alaves or Atletico Madrid?
Our model rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Deportivo Alaves wins, 3 draws, 2 Atletico Madrid wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.