Marítimo vs Porto: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Marítimovs
PortoThe model puts Porto at 74%. The model leans toward Porto. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Porto.
- +The head-to-head record favours Porto (1-3-11).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Marítimo have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Porto have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Marítimo have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Porto is priced at 1.312.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 3 |
| 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Marítimo at 10%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Porto at 74%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Porto. Marítimo is priced at 9.7. The draw is priced at 5.25. Porto is priced at 1.312.
Marítimo have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Porto have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Marítimo have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Porto have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Porto are on 2 wins in a row.
Marítimo average 1 goals per game this season. Marítimo average 39% possession. Porto average 2 goals per game this season. Porto average 52% possession.
The model gives 38% for both teams to score. The model gives 53% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Marítimo or Porto?
Our model rates Porto as the most likely outcome at 74% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Marítimo vs Porto?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 Marítimo wins, 3 draws, 11 Porto wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18:3 | 21 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 3 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 17:8 | 15 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11:4 | 15 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 6 |  Braga | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7:5 | 11 |
| 7 |  Academico de Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 8 |  Estrela da Amadora | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14:14 | 10 |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:5 | 8 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9:11 | 8 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:12 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:14 | 8 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9:7 | 7 |
| 14 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 15 |  Nacional da Madeira | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7:15 | 4 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5:15 | 4 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3:16 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3:10 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.