Helmond Sport vs Heracles Almelo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Helmond Sportvs
Heracles AlmeloThe model puts Heracles Almelo at 67%. The model leans toward Heracles Almelo. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Heracles Almelo.
- +The head-to-head record favours Heracles Almelo (3-5-6).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Helmond Sport have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Heracles Almelo have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Helmond Sport have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Heracles Almelo is priced at 1.41.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Helmond Sport at 15%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Heracles Almelo at 67%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Heracles Almelo. Helmond Sport is priced at 6.16. The draw is priced at 4.8. Heracles Almelo is priced at 1.41.
Helmond Sport have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Heracles Almelo have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Helmond Sport have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Heracles Almelo have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 46% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Helmond Sport or Heracles Almelo?
Our model rates Heracles Almelo as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Heracles Almelo?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 14 meetings: 3 Helmond Sport wins, 5 draws, 6 Heracles Almelo wins.
League table
Netherlands. Eerste Divisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heracles Almelo | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 26:10 | 21 |
| 2 |  Almere City | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:7 | 16 |
| 3 |  MVV Maastricht | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12:15 | 16 |
| 4 |  VVV-Venlo | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 21:14 | 15 |
| 5 |  Roda JC Kerkrade | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9:5 | 15 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18:17 | 15 |
| 7 |  Waalwijk | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 18:11 | 13 |
| 8 |  Vitesse | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 9 |  NAC Breda | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 17:17 | 13 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar II | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 22:17 | 13 |
| 11 |  Volendam | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 20:16 | 12 |
| 12 |  PSV Eindhoven II | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:16 | 12 |
| 13 |  Eindhoven | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13:17 | 10 |
| 14 | Helmond Sport | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:14 | 8 |
| 15 |  AFC Ajax II | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:22 | 8 |
| 16 |  Den Bosch | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:17 | 7 |
| 17 |  Dordrecht | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:23 | 7 |
| 18 |  De Graafschap | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:20 | 7 |
| 19 |  Utrecht II | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 15:21 | 7 |
| 20 |  Oss | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8:13 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.