Alfreton Town vs Guiseley: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Alfreton Townvs
GuiseleyThe model puts Alfreton Town at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Guiseley.
- +The head-to-head record favours Alfreton Town (5-0-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Alfreton Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Guiseley have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Alfreton Town have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Alfreton Town is priced at 2.398.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Alfreton Town at 40%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Guiseley at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Alfreton Town is priced at 2.398. The draw is priced at 3.95. Guiseley is priced at 2.614.
Alfreton Town have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Guiseley have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Alfreton Town have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Guiseley have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Guiseley are on 4 wins in a row.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Alfreton Town or Guiseley?
Our model rates Alfreton Town as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Alfreton Town vs Guiseley?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 5 Alfreton Town wins, 0 draws, 2 Guiseley wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
England. Northern Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cleethorpes Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 25:6 | 23 |
| 2 |  Avro | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28:16 | 22 |
| 3 |  Redcar Athletic | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 19:7 | 22 |
| 4 | Guiseley | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22:10 | 19 |
| 5 |  Warrington Town | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18:14 | 17 |
| 6 |  Bury | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 19:8 | 16 |
| 7 |  Curzon Ashton | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 8 |  Workington | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17:15 | 16 |
| 9 |  Gainsborough Trinity | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 14:12 | 13 |
| 10 |  Rylands | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12:13 | 13 |
| 11 | Alfreton Town | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 15:10 | 12 |
| 12 |  Whitby Town | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 14:24 | 12 |
| 13 |  Ashton United | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10:9 | 11 |
| 14 |  Hyde United | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11:19 | 11 |
| 15 |  Emley | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8:15 | 10 |
| 16 |  Lancaster City | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9:17 | 10 |
| 17 |  Leek Town | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 19:20 | 9 |
| 18 |  Bamber Bridge | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14:27 | 9 |
| 19 |  Stockton Town | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 13:20 | 8 |
| 20 |  Ilkeston | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 6:21 | 7 |
| 21 |  Quorn | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 12:23 | 6 |
| 22 |  United of Manchester | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 12:19 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.