Deportivo Alaves vs Malaga: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Deportivo Alavesvs
MalagaThe model puts Deportivo Alaves at 52%. The model leans toward Deportivo Alaves. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Deportivo Alaves have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Malaga have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Alaves have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Deportivo Alaves is priced at 1.825.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Deportivo Alaves at 52%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Malaga at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Deportivo Alaves. Deportivo Alaves is priced at 1.825. The draw is priced at 3.6. Malaga is priced at 4.4.
Deportivo Alaves have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Malaga have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Deportivo Alaves have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Malaga have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Deportivo Alaves average 3 goals per game this season. Deportivo Alaves average 52% possession. Malaga average 0 goals per game this season. Malaga average 47% possession.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportivo Alaves or Malaga?
Our model rates Deportivo Alaves as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportivo Alaves vs Malaga?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Deportivo Alaves wins, 3 draws, 7 Malaga wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34:7 | 24 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:8 | 19 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 14:9 | 19 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19:8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 6 |  Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:15 | 13 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alaves | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12:8 | 11 |
| 8 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:11 | 10 |
| 9 |  Celta | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8:6 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 8 |
| 11 |  Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:13 | 8 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11:11 | 8 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4:10 | 8 |
| 15 |  Racing de Santander | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13:23 | 8 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:18 | 8 |
| 17 |  Levante UD | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11:15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Elche | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11:17 | 6 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6:15 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:13 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.